Weekly Notes 2/8–14/2026
The following are a list of things I've read or watched this week that stood out. The summaries are AI generated through Perplexity.
Reading List
Something Big is Happening by Matt Shumer
Matt Shumer argues that we are at the early, “this seems overblown” stage of an AI transformation that will soon feel larger and faster than the Covid shock of 2020. He describes how recent AI models (like GPT‑5.3 Codex and Claude Opus 4.6 in his account) now handle entire software projects end‑to‑end, exercising something that feels like judgment or taste, and even contributing to the development of the next generation of AI itself.
He claims AI capabilities are improving exponentially, moving from basic errors a few years ago to passing professional exams, writing complex software, and autonomously completing multi‑hour expert tasks, with forecasted progress toward systems “substantially smarter than almost all humans at almost all tasks” by around 2026–2027. On jobs, he warns that AI is a general substitute for cognitive work and may eliminate a large share of entry‑level white‑collar roles within one to five years, touching law, finance, medicine, software, writing, and customer service, with nothing done primarily on a computer being “safe” over the medium term.
In response, he urges people to get early: use top-tier paid AI tools deeply in real work, aggressively automate their highest‑effort tasks, build adaptability as a habit, and strengthen personal financial resilience. He also highlights opportunities: radically cheaper building and learning, the ability for individuals to ship apps, books, and projects that were previously out of reach, and the importance of raising children to be curious builders who can work alongside powerful AI rather than optimizing for fragile, traditional career tracks.
Finally, he widens the lens to national security and societal risk, likening advanced AI to a new “country” of superhuman minds that could both solve major problems (like disease and aging) and enable serious harms (misuse, bioweapons, authoritarian control), making the next few years a profound test of human maturity in managing this technology.
Watch List
Cathie Wood's Big Ideas 2026 Recap by ARK Invest
The video is a high-level walkthrough of ARK Invest’s “Big Ideas 2026” report, where Cathie Wood argues that multiple innovation platforms are converging to drive a major acceleration in economic growth, productivity, and new markets by 2030.
Core Thesis: The Great Acceleration
- Wood claims we are early in a powerful innovation cycle driven by artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain, similar in importance to railroads, electricity, and the internal combustion engine.
- She argues that tech-related capital spending as a share of GDP could rise to around 12% and that real global GDP growth could accelerate toward the 7% range by 2030, representing a step-change similar to past industrial revolutions.
AI Infrastructure and Software
- Data center and AI infrastructure spend is estimated to grow from about 500 billion dollars annually to roughly 1.4 trillion dollars by 2030, powered by GPU demand and AI workloads.
- She notes AI tools already pay for themselves quickly in knowledge work (e.g., a 20 dollar subscription “paying off” in about half a day of productivity), and forecasts software markets growing much faster than in the past, while legacy SaaS faces significant disruption.
AI Consumer Layer and Advertising
- ARK’s team projects that AI assistants/purchasing agents will reshape digital advertising and commerce, with a large share of advertising and about a quarter of shopping being AI-mediated in the coming years.
- She emphasizes that getting on the “right side of change” means backing platforms and companies that build and own these AI layers rather than clinging to older software models.
Bitcoin, Stablecoins, and Tokenization
- Wood believes the recent Bitcoin drawdowns and deleveraging events have largely played out and expects the next major move to be upward, with Bitcoin continuing to mature as “digital gold” and a store of value, despite historically low correlation with physical gold.
- She highlights the rapid rise of stablecoins and tokenized assets on public blockchains, estimating tokenized assets could grow to around 11 trillion dollars, especially in public equities, sovereign debt, and bank deposits.
Multiomics and Life Sciences
- The multiomics section describes a convergence of sequencing, AI, and gene-editing technologies that could allow cancer and other conditions to be detected at or before stage one using blood tests.
- ARK estimates the cost of drug discovery and development could fall from about 2.4 billion dollars per drug to roughly 700 million within a few years and models that certain gene-editing cures could be worth millions per patient to the healthcare system, even if priced significantly lower.
Reusable Rockets, Space, and Energy
- Wood points to SpaceX as a decade ahead of competitors, controlling roughly two-thirds of the satellite launch market and a large majority of mass to orbit, enabling new use cases such as data centers in space.
- She argues that if nuclear power’s cost declines had not been stalled by regulation in the 1970s, electricity could be much cheaper today and expresses optimism that modern nuclear and distributed energy can offset AI-driven grid demand and lower power costs over time.
Autonomous Vehicles and Logistics
- ARK projects a massive autonomous vehicle ecosystem, with robo-taxis and autonomous fleets potentially supporting tens of trillions of dollars in market capitalization globally by 2030, with platform providers capturing most of the economics.
- She notes that only about 24 million autonomous vehicles—less than 10% of today’s U.S. auto fleet—could theoretically handle all urban miles if utilization rates rise, and claims autonomous trucks, drones, and delivery robots could cut delivery costs by around 60–90% (for example, bringing some delivery costs from 15 dollars to under 1 dollar).
Entrepreneurship and Labor
- Contrary to fears that AI and robotics will destroy jobs, Wood frames the period as an unprecedented opportunity for entrepreneurship, suggesting individuals can use AI tools to identify unmet needs and launch new ventures more easily than ever before.
- She maintains that the productivity unlocked by these technologies will create new sectors and roles, including in emerging domains like space and blockchain-based digital property rights.
Closing Emphasis
Wood reiterates that ARK was founded to research disruptive innovation at a time when traditional Wall Street research was pulling back and says their work now helps startups size markets and investors understand the scale of upcoming shifts.
She concludes that, despite skepticism and a “wall of worry” around innovation, the flywheel of investment, productivity, and technological convergence is now in motion and believes the “innovation age” is becoming effectively unstoppable, inviting viewers to read the full Big Ideas 2026 report.